Occasionally, it’s nice to see something in a much more highly regarded place back up your views. Bill Brandon of Learning Solutions magazine has an article of predictions for 2010 that have some similarities to my own:
Tool vendors will also be under increasing pressure, and some will suffer for their inability to adapt to changing demands. Most notable is the shift of high-cost applications to the Web/cloud. In most cases, this will involve substitution of tools: photo, video, and audio editing, for example. Most of the new editing tools are not yet as powerful as their desktop counterparts, but they are “good enough” for many purposes.
Hey, we even picked (some of) the same words. But in my defense, I didn’t read it until today. This “good enough” trend is something I think that will be ongoing. Paul Thurrott keeps talking about how Microsoft’s version of Office in the cloud will somehow blow away what Google Docs can do in terms of UI and features and such. I think this type of thinking is a bit backward – software is no longer going to be judged purely on how long the feature list is. The real questions are going to be about reliability, access, and portability. Can I be certain that my data is secure? Can I take my data and plug it in somewhere else? Can I share that data with someone else and collaborate on it?